tl;dr - Earnings is gonna be lit!PRPL earnings is tomorrow, 8/13, after hours. Any other date is wrong. Robinhood is wrong (why are you using Robinhood still!?!).I'm going to take you through my earnings projections and reasoning as well the things to look for in the earnings release and the call that could make this moon even further. Earnings Estimateshttps://preview.redd.it/w3qad4gb9ng51.png?width=854&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a88656a9867d0e40710736f61974a22b5f4a631I'm calling $244M Net Revenue with $39.75M in Net Income, which would be $0.75 Diluted EPS. I'll walk you through how I got here Total Net RevenueI make the assumption that Purple is still selling every mattress it can make (since that is what they said for April and May) and that this continued into June because the website was still delayed 7-14 days across all mattresses at the end of June.May Revenue and April DTC: The numbers in purple were provided by Purple here and here. April Wholesale: My estimate of $2.7M for Wholesale sales in April comes from this statement from the Q1 earnings release: " While wholesale sales were down 42.7% in April year-over-year, weekly wholesale orders have started to increase on a sequential basis. " I divided Q2 2019's wholesale sales evenly between months and then went down 42.7%. June DTC: This is my estimate based upon the fact that another Mattress Max machine went online June 1, thus increasing capacity, and the low end model was discontinued (raising revenue per unit). June Wholesale: Joe Megibow stated at Commerce Next on 7/30 that wholesale had returned to almost flat growth. I'm going to assume he meant for the quarter, so I plugged the number here to finish out the quarter at $39.0M, just under $39.3M from a year ago. Revenue Expectations from Analysts (via Yahoo) https://preview.redd.it/notxd6hhbng51.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa0453414f467aa6c5bf72ce8a8046c0ae6e62a5 My estimate of $244M comes in way over the high, let alone the consensus. PRPL has effectively already disclosed ~$145M for April/May, so these expectations are way off. I'm more right than they are. Gross MarginsI used my estimates for Q3/Q4 2019 to guide margins in April/May as there were some one time events that occurred in Q1 depressing margins. June has higher margin because of the shift away from the low end model (which is priced substantially lower than the high end model). Higher priced models were given manufacturing priority.Operating ExpensesMarketing and SalesJoe mentioned in the Commerce Next video that they were able to scale sales at a constant CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost). There's three ways of interpreting this:
General and Administrative A Purple HR rep posted on LinkedIn about hiring 330 people in the quarter. I'm going to assume that was relative to the pre-COVID furloughs, so I had June at that proportional amount to previous employees and adjusted April and May for furloughs and returns from furlough. Research and Development I added just a little here and straight lined it. Other ExpensesInterest ExpenseStraightlined from previous quarters, although they may have tapped ABL lines and so forth, so this could be under. One Time and Other Unpredictable by nature. Warrant Liability Accrual I'm making some assumptions here.
Earnings (EPS)I project $39.75M or $0.75 Diluted EPS (53M shares). How does this hold up to the analysts?EPS Expectations from Analysts (via Yahoo) https://preview.redd.it/o2i1dvk6hng51.png?width=373&format=png&auto=webp&s=27e63f7934d85393e1f7b87bf2e2066c28047202 EPS Expectations from Analysts (via MarketBeat) https://preview.redd.it/psu5rajfhng51.png?width=1359&format=png&auto=webp&s=0612d43777c644789b14f8c5decbe36f41925f5e These losers are way under. Now you know why I am so optimistic about earnings. Keep in mind, these analysts are still giving $28-$30 price targets. What to Watch For During Earnings (aka Reasons Why This Moons More)Analysts, Institutionals, and everyone else who uses math for investing is going to be listening for the following:
Margin Growth This factor is HUGE. If PRPL guides to higher margins due to better sales mix and continued DTC shift, then every analyst and investor is going to tweak their models up in a big way. Thus far, management has been relatively cautious about this fortuitous shift to DTC continuing. If web traffic is any indicator, it will, but we need management to tell us that. Warrant Liability Accrual I could be dead wrong on my assumptions above on this one. If it stays, there will be questions about it due to the drop in exercise price. It does impact GAAP earnings (although it shouldn't--stupid accountants). Capacity Expansion Rate This is a BIG one as well. As PRPL has been famously capacity constrained: their rate of manufacturing capacity expansion is their growth rate over the next year. PRPL discontinued expansion at the beginning of COVID and then re-accelerated it to a faster pace than pre-COVID by hurrying the machines in-process out to the floor. They also signed their manufacturing space deal which has nearly doubled manufacturing space a quarter early. The REAL question is when the machines will start rolling out. Previous guidance was end of the year at best. If we get anything sooner than that, we are going to ratchet up. CACs (Customer Acquisition Costs) Since DTC is the new game in town, we are all going to want to understand exactly where marketing expenses were this quarter and, more importantly, where management thinks they are going. The magic words to listen for are "marketing efficiencies". Those words means the stock goes up. This is the next biggest line item on the P&L besides revenue and cost of goods sold. New Product Categories We heard the VP of Brand from Purple give us some touchy-feely vision of where the company is headed and that mattresses was just the revenue generating base to empower this. I'm hoping we hear more about this. This is what differentiated Amazon from Barnes and Noble: Amazon's vision was more than just books. Purple sees itself as more than just mattresses. Hopefully we get some announced action behind that vision. This multiplies the stock. Cashless Exercise of PRPLW Warrants I doubt this will be answered, even if the question is asked. I bet they wait until the 20 out of 30 days is up and they deliver notice. We could be pleasantly surprised. If management informs us that they will opt for cashless exercise of the warrants, this is anti-dilutive to EPS. It will reduce the number of outstanding shares and automatically cause an adjustment up in the stock price (remember kids, some people use math when investing). I'm hopeful, but not expecting it. The amount of the adjustment depends on the current price of the stock. Also, I fully expect PRPL management to use their cashless exercise option at the end of the 20 out of 30 days as they are already spitting cash. Positionshttps://preview.redd.it/tho65crvkng51.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=6241ff5e8b26744f9d7119ddef7da86f163c741d I'm not just holding, I added. PRPLW Warrants: 391,280 PRPL Call Debit Spreads: 17.5c/25c 8/21 x90, 20c/25c 8/21 x247 Also, I bought some CSPR 7.5p 8/21 x200 for fun because I think that sucker is going to get shamed back down to $6 after a real mattress company shows what it can do. UPDATESI've made some updates to the model, and produced two different models:
From the recent S-3 filing for the May secondary, I pulled the following: https://preview.redd.it/qw7awg8w7sg51.png?width=368&format=png&auto=webp&s=66c884682ddb8517939468ab1e6780742f55d427 I diluted earnings by the above share count. Model With Warrant Liability Going to Zero https://preview.redd.it/cz2ydomi4sg51.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=53cc457a3143cabb16bfff9a1503054a9a8c0fca Model With Warrant Liability Going to $47M https://preview.redd.it/o2hltrgf5sg51.png?width=853&format=png&auto=webp&s=41cbe73a7aa0894a86a09ccc9179b100e9d3372d A few people called me out on my assumption, that I also said could be wrong. My favorite callout came from u/lawschoolbluesny who started all smug and condescending, and proceeded to tell me about June 31st, from which I couldn't stop laughing. Stay in law school bud a bit longer... https://preview.redd.it/dd4tcdue4sg51.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=d27f3ad40c702502ee62f106b6135f0db2c1e7be One other comment he made needs an answer because WHY we are accruing MATTERS a lot! Now that we have established that coliseum still has not exercised the options as of july 7, and that purple needs to record as a liability the fair value of the options as of june 31, we now need to determine what that fair value is. You state that since you believe that there is no logical reason that coliseum won't redeem their warrants "there is no longer a warrant liability where the company may need to repurchase warrants back." While I'm not 100% certain your logic here, I can say for certain that whether or not a person will redeem their warrants does not dictate how prpl accounts for them. The warrant liability accrual DOES NOT exist because the warrants simply exist. The accrual exists because the warrants give the warrant holder the right to force the company to buy back the warrants for cash in the event of a fundamental transaction for Black Scholes value ($18 at the end of June--June 31st that is...). And accruals are adjusted for the probability of a particular event happening, which I STILL argue is close to zero. A fundamental transaction did occur. The Pearce brothers sold more than 10M shares of stock which is why the exercise price dropped to zero. (Note for DS_CPA1 on Stocktwits: there is some conflicting filings as to what the exercise price can drop to. The originally filed warrant draft says that the warrant exercise price cannot drop to zero, but asubsequently filed S-3, the exercise price is noted as being able to go to zero. I'm going with the S-3.) Now, here is where it gets fun. We know from from the Schedule 13D filed with a July 1, 2020 event date from Coliseum that Coliseum DID NOT force the company to buy back the warrants in the fundamental transaction triggered by the Pearce Brothers (although they undoubtably accepted the $0 exercise price). THIS fundamental transaction was KNOWN to PRPL at the end Q4 and Q1 as secondary filings were made the day after earnings both times. This drastically increased the probability of an event happening. Where is the next fundamental transaction that could cause the redemption for cash? It isn't there. What does exist is a callback option if the stock trades above $24 for 20 out of 30 days, which we are already 8 out of 10 days into. Based upon the low probability of a fundamental transaction triggering a redemption, the accrual will stay very low. Even the CFO disagrees with me and we get a full-blown accrual, I expect a full reversal of the accrual next quarter if the 20 out of 30 day call back is exercised by the company. I still don't understand why Coliseum would not have exercised these. Regardless, the Warrant Liability Accrual is very fake and will go away eventually. ONE MORE THING...Seriously, stop PMing me with stupid, simple questions like "What are your thoughts on earnings?", "What are your thoughts on holding through earnings?", and "What are your thoughts on PRPL?".It's here. Above. Read it. I'm not typing it again in PM. I've gotten no less than 30 of these. If you're too lazy to read, I'm too lazy to respond to you individually. |
Let me start off by stating the obvious: We all follow FiveThirtyEight, and Nate Silver. Presumably because we trust him and his integrity. submitted by OutsideOfTheLines to fivethirtyeight [link] [comments] Well, Nate is hedging his bets at the moment. Which not only spits in the face of statistics/probability, but is something he (rightly) calls pollsters out for. I'm not about to just make those claims, without providing data to support them... So here we go: They currently have Trump's probability of victory at about 1 in 10. That *seems* off (based on the probability they have for each individual state), so I dug in further before opening my mouth. There are potentially a number of ways to approach this, so I'll try to cover as much as I can (before I lose my sanity/run out of time tonight). 1) Grant all states to the favorite where 538's probability is >99 in 100. This seems easy. 2) Grant all states to the leading candidate where 538's probability shows a candidate at X/100 or greater. The thing here is that, essentially no matter what number you choose for that threshold, this methodology would actually *benefit* Trump, probabilistically. (I'll illustrate below). Electoral Count where 538's probability is: <1 in 100: Biden 175, Trump 28 1 in 100: Biden +13 (VA) - Biden 188, Trump 28 2 in 100: Biden +12 EC (OR, NM), Trump +34 (ND, AL, LA, KY, KS) - Biden 200, Trump 62 3 in 100: Biden +1, (ME1st), Trump +11 (TN) - Biden 201, Trump 73 4 in 100: Biden +19 (CO, MN), Trump +12 (NE1st, IN) - Biden 220, Trump 85 5 in 100: Biden +16 (MI), Trump +9 (SD, UT) - Biden 236, Trump 94 6 in 100: Biden +10 (WI) - Biden 246, Trump 94 7 in 100: Trump +10 (MO) - Biden 246, Trump 104 8 in 100: Trump +15 (SC, MS) - Biden 246, Trump 119 So from probability range of (>1 in 100 to 8 in 100) Trump granted 13 races, for a total of 91 electoral votes. Biden granted 7 races, for a total of 58 electoral votes. Even if we start at 4 in 100, Biden still only gains 45 votes (4 races) to Trump's 46 votes (7 races). Stopping at 6 in 100 would give Biden an even better chance, but I'm not trying to cherry pick data; I'm trying to ensure that I actually skew this in Trump's favor (with the end goal being that--even when you do so--Biden still has a much greater than 90% probability, based on 538's own numbers.) \**I need to run to the store and take a break - I'm going to post this, as is, with a preview of my conclusion (which I admittedly haven't yet proven), so that you guys can feel free to go through and point out errors I may have made/digest whatever info is here/etc.* My conclusion will end up being that, we can basically grant each state to the leader, up to (but not including) Iowa for Trump, and up to (but not including) Pennsylvania for Biden... WITH the use of probability-differentials to offset one another. (i.e. it's as likely that Biden will take a state where he only has an 8 in 100 chance, as it is that Trump will do the reverse... And there are far more states/votes within Biden's grasp than there are Trump's). That will leave Biden 12 ECV short, with 6 different options that are, on average, slightly *better* than a coin flip for Biden, to cross 270..... And that doesn't include PA, where he's a heavy favorite. Winning 6 of 6 coin tosses = 1 in 64..... And again, that doesn't even include PA. (I realize this is overly simplified - as I said, I'm still not yet finished, but wanted to share this sooner rather than later, so that anyone is free to analyze it and offer insight). But even as this stands, it looks like Nate hedging his bets. Hard. **I'll try to finish in the next couple of hours, after I get back from the store/eating dinneetc. \****PART 2*****\** (I'm leaving the first part as it was, for the sake of integrity; please remember that I said I was not yet finished making my case, and that I acknowledged that I was oversimplifying and hadn't yet touched upon other factors) First, a simple graphic that shows how easy it is to come to the conclusion that Nate is hedging his bets: The states we can probably all agree can be granted to each candidate... Notice how, if Biden wins the states that we (likely) all agree he will win, it's 2 in 100 for Trump, rather than 10 in 100? In my 2nd attempt play with the map, I initially only selected states where it was 95% or higher. That led to a map where the next closest states--closer races listed first--(ME, NH, SC, MS, MO, WI) all shifted enough (here's some of the correlation coming into play - *as calculated by Nate*) that *they* were 95% or higher. So I selected them, and ended up here. This leaves NV at 92 -8, and PA 93-7... And in 2016 (here's more correlation) NV actually resulted in Trump falling 6 points short of how he was polling there, losing the state. If we're correlating the results in one state to the results in another, shouldn't Biden's odds in NV go up, then, with a Trump win in PA? (Trump also fell short of the polling numbers in 2016 for AZ and Texas as well, despite winning PA; can we correlate those? This map does the opposite). It's one thing to acknowledge that correlation can have an effect from state to state. But it's nearly impossible to quantify or predict... And there's absolutely zero reason to believe that, should Biden lose PA by a tiny percentage again (one very close to the Margin of Error, anyway), that his chances suddenly take a nose dive in EVERY other state (as Nate's interactive model implies). Based on this alone, how can you argue Nate isn't hedging his bets? I wanted to go into the numbers further (specifically, the fact that Biden has many more opportunities to steal some very red states--based on Nate's own probabilities, as I showed above-- than Trump does to take states he himself won in 2016. Now, as many pointed out, I was guilty of not addressing possible correlation in the first part of this. (Again, I defend myself in that I made a point of saying I wasn't done, and that I was making some oversimplifications...) But I *should* have addressed what I would be addressing. So I accept your very fair criticisms. But Nate's own interactive map shows the more realistic picture; he just didn't want to risk further criticism, and has thus made 538's "Official" forecast FAR more conservative than his numbers indicate things should be. Here's the thing, though... I know we're all fans of fivethirtyeight and Nate Silver. But be honest with yourself and see what's happening. On one hand, it's hard to blame him, because people who don't understand probability will once again turn on him, so he likely feels his reputation is on the line. But using his own numbers, it's not hard to see that Biden should be CLEARLY FAVORED to win the election. And most importantly, keep in mind that THIS IS GOOD NEWS. Trump doesn't have a 1 in 10 chance of winning this election. Not if it plays out honestly. Side note: I hope I was able to give those among us who are stressed (all of us?) a bit of last-minute comfort... You're all wonderful, and I appreciate you taking to time to read this novel. (One that I'm big enough to admit I failed to get as deep into the data as I'd have liked). |
Greetings my fellow clan of delinquent compatriots. I made a post 3 weeks ago regarding how to avoid IV crush during this recent market rally. The link to that can be found here: Don't Scream "GUH", Avoid IV Crush. That trade worked out well, and I am back. submitted by bigd0g111 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Today, I am back with a follow-up for navigating the road ahead. This post is not about why the market will potentially retest the lows, but rather how to maximize profit and limit downside risk should the move down occur. Just as the vega-neutral post focused on volatility trades, this one explores vol strategies further. I tried to substitute words with pictures for the illiterate inclined. For solid DD on where the market is going, view u/Variation-Separate or u/scarvesandsuspenders recent posts. I do believe that sitting at either the 50% or potential near term 61.8% retracement will trigger the next leg down, and this post is about how to capitalize on that through volatility. At best, you will get a trade idea (other than $SPY puts / $SPY straddles). At worst, you will gain some solid understanding of volatility and how it applies to you. My goal in this post is to take a pretty abstract concept and break it down so that we can all become more profitable. Take 5 minutes, read, challenge my strategy, ask questions, and achieve nirvana. Let's begin. So You Say I Should Trade Volatility, Aye: Yes. That is exactly what I am saying. While retail traders and WSBers have been yoloing FD on TSLA and SPCE (Jan 2022 calls will print), smart money has been executing the best trade of the past decade. The trade: Short volatility, hedged with volatility insurance. This is done by shorting $VXX (short vol), and purchasing $VIX calls (long vol) on a rolling basis as a hedge. Depending on the time frame of your $VIX calls (weekly, quarterly, monthly), this trade has performed dramatically well. The strategy is rooted in the belief that volatility will, over time, mean revert and decrease after spikes caused by a "black swan." It is logical - option premiums on the S&P 500 (for which the $VIX tracks) theoretically will never remain permanently inflated as news becomes digested. Take a look at 2008, 2000, etc - the common theme is volatility starts to slowly recede before the lows of the S&P 500 are registered as the catalyst causes an explosion of volatility, and as the market prices in the "black swan," the market naturally performs price discovery causing volatility to come down. That is not to say volatility does not continue to spike during draw-downs in equities - it does, but typically not as dramatically unless the incoming news is categorized as dramatically more significant.
Implied volatility for the broader market can be understood through $VIX. IV is forward looking, and gives us an understanding of how much the market is expecting to move over the next 30-day period (this is a simplification, but applies). Realized volatility is actual variance in price movement over a period in time. To compare the two, solve for the realized volatility over the past 30 day period (21 trading days) by taking the standard deviation, adjusted for an annualized reading. I calculated this to get updated data, and the current output is below: RV / IV 2020 What we can see is that a pretty stark divergence has occurred, with realized vol moving higher than implied vol. This negative spread relationship is counter-intuitive. Think about it. If IV is forward looking, it should be trading at a premium to where RV is currently trading at because we need to account for the uncertainty in the future variance of the markets. This is not the first time this has happened. It occurred in 2002, in 2008, and in a few periods of high volatility since the GFC. RV / IV 2008 RV / IV Collection The important theme is that, over time, the relationship eventually returns to normalcy. That is, overtime either realized vol decreases, implied vol increases, or a combination of the two occurs. This is where our previous author went astray by saying this divergence requires a spike in IV - there are many ways for this imbalance to revert to normalcy. When RV is below IV, the market is understating the risk of a large loss. When RV is above IV, the market is clearly in distress, and it is overstating the risk of a large loss. Put simply: RV > IV, the market favors option buyers, RV < IV, the market favors option sellers. This is huge, because it clearly articulates the opportunity cost of purchasing verse selling options. But as I highlighted before, the return to a positive IV / RV spread can occur with a decrease in RV, an increase in IV, or a combination of the two, and the time frame is murky. So, Master Skywalker, what are we going to do? Let's take a look at the $VIX futures because they can show us what the market is forecasting for expected future movement of $SPX option implied volatility. The term structure for the $VIX futures is showing mad backwardation - that is, the future settlement dates are trading well below the current spot price. In WSB terms, the futures market is implying $VIX will continue to fall over the next 8 months. $VIX Futures Term Structure The Volatility Trade, Applied Right Now: We are presented with 3 potential outcomes:
Short $VIX Futures with Settlement for Sept 2020 - Bet that RV Decreases Over 5 Month Period
Note: I recognize that most of you do not have access to futures or even shorting for that matter, which is why I will also present a solid hybrid hypothetical trade, but hear me out. What this does: $VIX futures with further settlement dates, while less liquid, are less sensitive to short-term spikes in the $VIX. This trade is a bet that implied volatility through September will be decreasing in aggregate. The $VIX calls with short-term settlement dates are implemented to hedge my short $VIX futures, and capitalize on any potential increase in IV moving forward should we retest the lows in $SPY. This trade let's me bet on a short-term decrease in $SPY (and related spike in $VIX), while hedging with a longer-term bet that volatility will decrease. It is essentially a volatility strangle with different time frames. This requires margin, and excess cash in case of margin call :) How a Newb With a Robinhood Account Can Do This: The simple newb approach would be a reverse calendar spread (sell long dated calls, buy short-date calls) on $VXX, but that caps our gains, and we are not here for capped gains. If you are, jump over to investing. I recognize that RH does not allow $VIX, let alone $VIX futures. So let's reassess the goal of this trade: We expect $SPY to retest the lows, volatility to spike in the short-term, and I want tendies to print because of this. This movement should work toward restoring a positive relationship between RV and IV. But, maybe you, like me, have cautious conviction about this trade given the Fed, US Gov stimulus, and other erroneous factors. So, with the goal of maximizing gains, and limiting losses, we are going to hedge our exposure. The Hypothetical Hedged Vol Trade:
tl;dr - I expect the market to move in the direction of retesting the lows, but Fed bailout, Fiscal stimulus, and overall complacency could prevent a retest. Thus, instead of trading $SPY, consider trading volatility as the relationship between realized vol and implied vol is fucked up, and will correct itself over time. Because of this, explore going short volatility while hedging with long volatility call options. Long $SVXY, Long $VXX Calls. As always, discuss, challenge, ask questions and shitpost! The purpose of this post is to educate people on volatility plays, not recommendations. I will not recommend strikes, expirations, or anything. Use your noodle. This is Not financial advise, just for educational purposes.
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ZCode System Reddit and Sports BettingDo you like sports? Well, today is your lucky day, because that passion is going to make you earn a lot of money. And don't worry, you won't have to leave your chair to get it.The answer is in sports betting. That industry that moves millions of dollars a year and that you have probably tried sometime (who doesn't want to have a little fun from time to time?). You will think that I am crazy and that betting is just luck sometimes. But as you may have seen, in recent years there have been different methods (some very strange!) Of making money online. And sports is no exception. Just by making an accurate forecast and betting some money, you can generate good profits in no time and without doing ANYTHING. You will be sitting on the sofa watching the game you bet on to see how much money you will win. Cool, huh? You can have a beer with your friends, enjoy the great game of the week on your TV, and with the good money that you will get from the bets, maybe you invite. Don't worry, it's not like you should be a super fan or know everything about the teams. Now there is a platform that will take care of all that work and will tell you the forecasts you should make. At first, I thought it was not a good idea, but after thoroughly researching the Zcode System platform, here I bring you all the information you should know if you also want to start generating income by betting. Go for it! What is Zcode System?Zcode System Review 2020Zcode System is a sports betting robot specially designed so that you can earn money with the sports that you like so much. This system gives you such accurate predictions that you can really make good profits by betting. The truth is that for some time I had found out about this site that allows you to do business with betting, but I never paid attention to it. What a mistake I made! This is a system developed by a group of sports and math fans (a rare combination) who looked for ways to earn money from many sports matches. And they really nailed this formula for predicting the final results of the games. Keep in mind that they have been in this market since 1999, almost 20 years! With such a good reputation, they created a huge community on Facebook and started making public predictions, where the people who followed them made a lot of money. Thus they managed to gain more than 12,000 followers on that social network. Admittedly, they looked for a big mess when making these public forecasts, since many companies that make their living with the bets and the losses of the people, found it difficult to see such good results. Of course, Zcode System does NOT make predictions for all sports, only for basketball, baseball, American football, and NHL (hockey). Why? Well, because they are the sports in which more people bet. A lot of money moves in these games so you have to take advantage of it. In addition, there are many other sports that are only played during short seasons, instead, these that I mentioned are present ALL year. This way you ensure a good income during the 365 days. It took the Zcode System team years to find the correct and automatic way to do these mathematical calculations in an easy way so that any user can understand their predictions and bet. The best thing is that they used a good number of parameters to make everything more precise, find the correct value of the bet and win much more money. Since the more accurate the bet you make, the more benefits you will have. You do this with answers to questions like "how many goals are going to be scored?", "Which player will score?", Etc. Even in these types of questions, Zcode System answers you. However, something so good cannot be available to everyone. If so, the sportsbooks would take notice and the value or winnings would drop drastically. Therefore, Zcode System only has a limited number of memberships that will be sold out very soon. I recommend that you do not be so indecisive and take advantage of this great opportunity. >Access Zcode with a discount I'm a bit lazy... How can I make money with Zcode system from my chair?Zcode is a super friendly online software that will let you know how to bet on a match and win money. In fact, you just have to review their predictions, enter the betting page you want and place the results they gave you along with the amount you want to invest and that's it! Earned money.However, I must tell you that as always, you start with little money. It is never good if you put a high amount at risk. You can be guided by the classification that the system places on the predictions. It consists of 1 to 5 stars, the higher the number of stars, the more confidence in that prediction. Likewise, it has many tools so that you can study those predictions and reduce the risk of your bet. The best part is that they are free! Every day the system searches and collects information on all teams, matches, events, to study the games that are currently presented, and since it has so many filters, it only takes into account the precise and correct information so that your investment does not get lost. The recommendations that Zcode System gives you are about where you should invest, which team is going to win, with how many goals or points, conditions of your victory, that is, you can make several investments at the same time. It's like having your own genie from the lamp trapped in the computer and giving you the right answers. With this information and having wagered on the conditions recommended to you, you can sit down and have a coffee while waiting for the end of the game to collect your money. It's just placing your bet and winning! What betting tools does Zcode have to win?1. Zcode Line ReversalsAt Zcode they have sought to make it even easier for the community that uses their system to earn money. For this reason, now it has several tools available on its website, and the best thing is that they are free so that your bets are made as God intended and not adrift.I know this first tool has a futuristic name, but it is simpler than you think. The truth is that it has many functions since it allows you to observe the value of bets, the percentage of people who bet on a team, where the money is moving, etc. That is, it allows you to place your money wisely. You will need it! Zcode System Results >Visit Zcode Tools< 2. Z-Code OscillatorOscillator? But no one uses that word anymore!However, that's what this tool is called. What it does is that it will allow you to know the streaks of the team you want to bet on, as well as you can compare the teams you want. Imagine that you can pull out accurate comparison statistics between the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers in a decisive game, and it allows you to win a ton of money. It is key information that it provides you, so it never hurts. If you like to bet on teams, you cannot miss this tool, I know that it will be as useful as money itself. 3. Zcode Totals PredictorAs its name implies, the tool seeks to facilitate and predict the overall results.https://preview.redd.it/h3hye2nkl5361.jpg?width=1030&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=08e59b4f0f3b04f59c5fddbdee7be8f9dcdbac90 It is very useful at the time of knowing the results of basketball or rugby matches since they are very large figures compared to football. In fact, the larger the numbers, the more accurate they are. Crazy! It may be that you use it to find out how many points the Cleveland Cavaliers will win a basketball game with and you can generate good profits with it. 4. Z-code profit oscillator per pitcherThat weird name again, but you know what it's all about. This tool allows you to know the behavior of two pitchers and compare them.It serves you very well when you are watching a baseball game and you want to invest in the team that has the best pitchers. It seems like a bit of cheating, but the truth is that it does not use any strange parameters, it only relates how the players have been playing, that is, their performance. It is perfect for fans of this sport, so you will have no margin for error when betting on a pitcher. 5. “Power rankings” indicatorI really love this name, it denotes strength, control, and courage. Especially since it is a tool that is going to be needed a lot.In case you have doubts about where to bet, it allows you to know the real situation of the team, its stability, and how the team will behave. The higher the power rank, the better the team's behavior. It's like measuring yourself in a boxing ring and whoever is last will be the best. Remember that there are always ups and downs, therefore the indicator will always be changing. The important thing is that you have good information before betting, lest you lose all your money by not checking the statistics (It happened to me). >Zcode website< How do I access the Zcode VIP membership?Getting a Zcode VIP membership is super easy. In fact, while writing this post, one of my friends opened his account in less than 3 minutes. To avoid all the hassle of searching for the page, here is a link where you can enter immediately.Once inside the page, you must press the button "I want to enter". Hurry up! There are few places left to acquire this great system, so doubting will not help you much. When the posts run out, it will be a while before one is released. You are now one step away from obtaining the best predictive betting system. In the new window, you will see a payment form that you must fill out with your information. This is your billing information, so it must be very accurate. This form is secured by McAfee and Norton security, so there is nothing to worry about. You have the opportunity to acquire your VIP membership for only $ 79 per month. Besides, you can also buy extra software to be a beta tester of other systems called Zcode Almanac for $ 99. You can pay with various means, Visa or Mastercard credit cards, American Express, Discover and you also have the PayPal payment option. Keep in mind that as soon as you have made the payment, you will be able to enter their digital platform without any problem, becoming part of this select group of bets. It's like being part of the fight club, only here you can talk about it. What does Zcode System include?Once the membership is purchased, you will have access to all the information about the matches and teams. You will immediately realize that it is a complete system and that it really pays off on its own. You will be able to watch a welcome video that will easily explain how to use the platform, so pay close attention.In addition, for becoming such a special member, they will give you an action plan that will indicate everything you must do in detail to earn money with Zcode. Don't forget also all the free tools that you can access once you are a member. You can make many combinations to improve your betting predictions. If you are wondering if you will be able to recover your investment, let me tell you that you will not only recover it, but you will be able to multiply it in a few days. This starter pack will help you earn money by betting on your favorite sports, without leaving your bed! Anyone would like an opportunity like this. With this welcome you will not have to bet blindly, you will be well directed by Zcode System in this way of sports betting. So, can I try Zcode System for free first?Zcode system free trial and free picksThere is nothing better than trying something before you buy it, and this system is no exception. So I'll give you only one answer: Of course you can try Zcode for free before paying! What's more, this was the first thing its creators did, by keeping their predictions public on the Facebook group. To try Zcode System for free, you just have to click on the following link that I leave here below: >>>Free Zcode Free Trial Access Once you have entered the page, just click on the top menu where it says "Free tools", and when the screen appears as in the image below, write your email and click on the green button "Download! NOW!". Then you just have to go to your email t confirm it and voila! There you will have an email from Zcode where there are links to use its tools for FREE. However, as I mentioned before, they are about to be closed to the public and become a private group. Which means no more free predictions! You have to be very confident for anyone to use the tools that your VIP users have. Though if you think about it, it's also a confident way of saying "I'm the best." But if I don't like sports, what do I do?I get you, not everyone likes hockey, basketball, football, or baseball. I didn't even like all those sports, but now that I make money with them thanks to Zcode System, I don't miss a single game anymore.Of course, I am not going to force you to use this system if you don't like any sport. But what I can do is illustrate you. How? Very simple, showing you why the fact that you don't like those sports is the best thing that can happen to you right now. If you've ever bet on your favorite team in the past, and let's say it wasn't one of the best, you know what it's like to lose money by getting carried away by your emotions. Until now I see that many continue to make this mistake and it also happened to me in the past. And I tell you this because if you do not like these sports, your emotions will not cloud your actions. This means that when placing bets you will do so with a calm and cool head. Because we must be clear, money is what matters most. And if you can earn a good chunk of greens doing this lightly and as a hobby, well, I think that would be great. A Jedi Master of Investing tells you: " Investing for emotion will be your downfall." So there you have it! A change in perspective that could open your eyes and make you a millionaire. Conclusion on Zcode Review after researching for 3 monthshttps://preview.redd.it/h3khkn94m5361.jpg?width=240&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2359ab413ee66c1f9f3962323b586bb3ae49c566 I can really tell you that this time I did do the Sherlock Holmes job to give you the best information about this show. A couple of months ago I learned from a friend that a betting system was gaining fame, as it promised a lot and the investment was relatively low. Like all skeptics, I did not believe it, so I decided to search for the information myself before commenting on it. For the past two months, I've been flipping between pages, comments, blogs, advertising, and even contacting those who gave testimonials, just to find the truth. And well, as everyone who seeks finds, I came across a crushing reality: Not only was what my friend told me true, but it was better than I believed. The way Zcode is designed is so cool and logical, that it doesn't lead to bets based on emotion, but on past results, comparisons, and streaks. What makes this system a supercollider of information to get an optimal and true result. A month after the investigation I decided to prove the veracity of what I had sought. So I bought the membership. The tools, the way in which he achieves results, how he studies the games, the players. Everything is true! The system interface is super friendly, in a little while I was able to adapt and learn how to know which forecasts to follow and which ones not, because it remembers that it classifies them by stars. And not only that, it has a large community of sports fans who help you secure bets, and that, the Zcode page does not tell you. It's amazing how everyone is commenting on how well they are doing and posting their earnings. They also spend time recommending the tools that have served them the most and those that you shouldn't use. However, I have not decided to invest yet. What I did was look on television for the games that the program was predicting, to see if it was correct. I looked for 10 matches, of which he hit 8. They were all different. Well, the last week I have been closely following the forecasting action of Zcode and the truth is that every day out of 10 it hits 7 or 8. I think that is a pretty good number. That's when I decided to bet based on the Zcode results and I'm almost close to tripling my membership investment, it won't take long. Keep in mind that places to access the VIP community are running out faster than I expected. People are going crazy! And it is not for less with a system that opens the doors to bets and profits 80% of the time. I don't know about you, but to me, it reads like a good deal. My great advice is that if you want to decide on this program, do it before it is too late, if not, make room to see how others make money while you missed the opportunity. Remember, currently, the Zcode System is 60% off, and it is not known how long it will be like this! Until the squares are filled, or until there are very, very few left. Being you, I don't wait to find out. Take action today: VISIT ZCODE HERE |
The following are our Q4 2019 net worth and income and expense posts from our blog, wrapping up the quarter and the year. submitted by HisHerMoneyGuide to fiaustralia [link] [comments] TL;DR: Net worth went up $534,000 for the year. Our Q4 savings rate was 80%, and 88.5% for the year. Fell short of our 90% savings rate goal. https://preview.redd.it/nxx4b7t7x0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fadc7b35bad84e6dd2d1b3b18e3a8aad0d240ff4 Quarter 4 2019 – Net worth update: Up $534,000 for 2019Wow, I cannot believe the year went by that fast. I hope you’ve all had a safe and happy Christmas and New Year period.As we said in our New Year birthday post, we had a busy quarter on the work front. It’s been getting really bad. Work stress is a very real concern for both my wife Ellie and I, and it seems only fitting that we want to FIRE. It’s still very far away, but we started 2018 with a goal of retiring in 10 years, and a year has passed. Given the rapid passage of time, 10% time progress is nothing to be sneezed at. However, in October I wrote a post on how our progress seems to be accelerating, following the rapid progress we made to a $1 million share portfolio. But the numbers in that post were quickly superseded with some big news. Financially speaking, the quarter started out with a bang when Ellie received a $100,000 inheritance and the mixed emotions that came with it. It was a huge win for our finances, but it came at the expense of a familial loss. While that was the headline event this quarter, let’s take a look at the full picture and see how we ended the year. Our financial goalsHere are our early retirement goals. Essentially we want to retire early before the age of 45, with the following in assets:
So how did we go in October-December to finish up the year? As always, let’s start with shares. https://preview.redd.it/y07lxgmtv0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13392f5dd13fc484828da42ab64b33a995657cff October-December: SharesAfter finding out that we were going to receive the inheritance, our thoughts turned to where we could invest it.That ended up being in a pair of long-term, hopefully safe and stable Listed Investment Companies (LICs). They’ll provide us with around a 6% gross dividend return. With $50,000 thrown into each, they should see our gross passive dividend income increase by around $6,000 annually. That’s around 4% of our entire FIRE income right there, and we’re incredibly lucky and grateful to have received this. Otherwise, after that explosive start to the quarter, the remainder was actually very quite on the buying front. We had a big tax bill to pay, as well as another big expense for 2020 – holidays – that we put a down payment on. But you’ll have to wait for our Q4 income and expense report (coming up next) to hear more about that. However, that did mean that we lost the best part of a month of our salaries to those expenses. While we bought big, our portfolios were also hit by the (seemingly endless) banking scandals that have hit the sector. Given that we’re heavy in financials, that side underperformed – all the more reason to add extra diversity to our portfolio! So how did it all go with the value of our shares? Our share portfolio was started the year on $725,000, was $819,000 at the end of Q1 2019, $931,000 in Q2 2019, and broke the $1 million mark at the end of Q3 at $1,023,000. The ASX started October on 6688.30 points and ended the year on 6,684.10 – down 0.1% for the quarter. We ended 2019 with a value of $1,120,000. Given how much many of our stocks were beaten down, we were actually very happy to end up with that – it could have been a lot worse. We’ve noticed that LICs generally show a lot of resilience during downturns, so they could have cushioned the blow for our balances. Regardless, we ended the quarter up $97,000 (9.5%). In total on 31 December 2019 our share portfolio was up $395,000 compared to 31 December 2018 – an increase of 54.5%, which is just mind-blowing to us. Even without the inheritance, our portfolio would have gone up by around 40%. What a crazy year on the share front, in so many ways. https://preview.redd.it/0j3y8cbuv0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee77b2e1c64c7cb09090dd5979aec73b3b815839 October-December: SuperannuationNext up is our superannuation accounts – or compulsory retirement savings.During the quarter there were all sorts of ruminations about the Australian retirement system. Someday a future government is going to have to bite hard on the retirement age bullet and raise it, because it’s just not going to end up well for the economy otherwise if they keep it as it is. But that unpopular can of worms will still get kicked down further the road for a few years longer. Thankfully we plan to avoid a lot of the hoopla around government pensions (or lack thereof) in our old age by being self-funded early retirees. That said, for as long as we continue working, we receive employer-funded contributions into our retirement funds. We don’t make extra superannuation contributions because we can’t access these under current laws until we’re at least 60 years old (wait for that number to eventually rise as well). We’ll do a post about that in the next few weeks. So how did things go for our superannuation balances? As a reminder, we started 2019 with $335,000 in super, $368,000 by 31 March, $393,000 by 30 June, and $409,000 at 30 September. Three months later we’re now on $428,000 – an increase of $19,000 or 4.6%. It’s also an annual rise of $93,000 or 27.7%, which is a staggering amount. https://preview.redd.it/5jlko3xuv0a41.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d6b00ee9b3f2e44dec609f6d355b49bc7930edf October-December: Primary place of residenceLast quarter the dial on the value of our house price moved for first time, and there seems to be some corroborating evidence for that.House prices stagnated here in Brisbane over the last year, while southern Australian house prices took a dive of 10-15%, However, now news comes of a change in sentiment, and house prices are forecast to rebound by as much as 17% in 2020… Unfortunately it’s only meant to be between 3-7% in Brisbane. But we can live with that. However, despite the change in the national property market’s sentiment, has anything changed with the value of our home in the last three months? Last quarter in Q3 onthehouse.com.au said it was $710,000 (up from $705,000 in Q2), and ANZ bank said it was worth $720,000 (up from $655,000). We didn’t trust the actual numbers, but we went with the number ANZ gave back in Q2 – $655,000, a $5,000 increase. We haven’t seen as much real estate action in our neighbourhood this quarter, so this will be interesting. At the end of December onthehouse.com.au gave us a valuation of $735,000 – up $25,000. Once again, onthehouse.com.au seems to be a bit too optimistic (but we’d certainly take it!), while ANZ is a bit closer to the mark. That said, compared to Q3 when ANZ it was $720,000, in Q4 it now said it’s worth $668,000. Huh? ANZ certainly likes to bounce around. So once again, I’m a bit conflicted with how to value things. While one valuation goes up $25,000, the other plummets by $52,000, and they give different figures. The ANZ report is certainly closer to the mark in any case in my opinion – and it’s still higher than the valuation we settled on last quarter ($655,000), so hopefully we’re just conservative. But I’m going to play it slightly safe and hold the valuation at $655,000. If both valuations move in the same direction (either up or down) as they did last quarter, we’ll move things. Our future retirement home will cost around $1 million to buy, so we’ll have a shortfall that we’ll need to make up once our passive income goals are finalised. However, we’ve paid off the property, so all the capital is ours and counts towards our net wealth. But our primary place of residence isn’t the only skin we’ve got in the real estate game. https://preview.redd.it/mcr008ivv0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae97ad34cdeb0a4cc5f646d85abcf690cdff4d38 October-December: Investment propertiesRighty-o – Last quarter things moved up by $5,000 to a combined value of $605,000, with an extra $3,000 paid off our two investment properties.This quarter, things only paid themselves off by a barely noticeable $1,000 with a total debt of $374,000. On the valuation side, this was the state of play in Q4 via onthehouse.com.au and ANZ property reports:
Between the two, things have apparently dropped by $500 per property – which is just splitting hairs. Given they were both pulling in practically opposite directions, we’ll call this flat again at $605,000, and claim the $1,000 mortgage repayment. ANZ seems to once again be the more accurate measure, and we’ll once again play it conservative and retain their $605,000 total value. Deducting our debt of $374,000 gives us total equity of $231,000. That’s a tiny increase of 0.4%. So in total, a very unremarkable quarter on the property front! https://preview.redd.it/qnl4a8swv0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b32e426f3d26d2a09518504ebc59867398e9a562 Financial state of the unionLooking back to the start of the year, we began with a net worth of $1,900,000, increasing to $2,057,000 in Q1, sitting on $2,196,000 in Q2, and reaching $2,317,000 in Q3.So here’s how things look at the end of 2019:
For the whole year, it’s a quite extraordinary increase of $534,000, or 28.1%. Taking out the inheritance Ellie received, it’s still a momentous lift of $434,000 – which would have been 10% of our entire net worth goal: a ridiculous number, really. Given the ~18% market rally in 2019, ridiculous really should be the word of the year. It would be crazy to expect the same in 2020. But given that much of 2019 was mired by Brexit and the US-China trade war (which is now partially agreed), 2020 might be another year with rocket under it now that Brexit is also almost sorted (did I just jinx it?). That said, Iran, North Korea, and any number of other surprises will await us as well. Domestically in Australia, talk of further interest rate cuts might drive even more money into shares, and the housing market is apparently rebounding. If it wasn’t for the underlying shaky fundamentals, you’d bet that 2020 will be another solid year… But we’ll see. In the end all I know is that our net worth has increased – and it’s now 56.6% of our total target – progress towards FIRE of 12.4%. What a year! Next up is our income and expenses report for Q4 2019, so stay tuned for that and our quest to save 90% for the year. Will we reach it? Blog link: https://hishermoneyguide.com/quarter-4-2019-net-worth-update/ https://preview.redd.it/g1q7rc8ew0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=444faca594580d9b556b839b525888d357901ab4 2019 income and expenses: We saved $189,718 – 88.5% savings rateThe big question we’ve been asking ourselves is whether we reached our goal of saving 90% of our income over the course of the entire year.Our running total for the first nine months of 2019 was an income of $151,400, with expenses of just $12,710. That’s a huge running savings rate of 91.6%. But the first nine months don’t tell the full story by any means. We still had our eye watering tax bill to include this quarter. Plus a surprise expense: we’re going on holidays in Q1 2020, and in November we pre-paid a decent chunk of it! So can we keep our heads above the 90% threshold across the whole year as we aim for financial independence and early retirement before age 45? Let’s find out! October-December: Income and side hustlesLet’s start with our salaried work and effort-related ‘active’ income (aka: side hustles).For starters, this quarter had a profitable seven pay cycles within it for salaries, giving us $43,314.18 after tax. That’s $6,187.74 more than last quarter which only had six pay days. Wouldn’t it be nice if every quarter had seven pay cycles… We haven’t had any big wins on the side-hustle front to finish the year. But here are other small income streams. Our bottle collection numbers were $147.70, compared to $235 last quarter. That brings us up to $1015.20 for the year. Not bad for some tax-free cash. However, this side of things has certainly slowed down for us recently. We just haven’t had the time to go on walks after work like we did earlier in the year, so these numbers are decreasing. And the streets actually seem cleaner as well, which is awesome. This blog made $119.04, compared to $119.26 last quarter. In total the blog earned us $369.76 for the year. In late 2018 the site cost about $521 to set-up with 6 years of hosting, two years domain registration, and a paid theme. So the way things are going, next quarter things will have more or less paid for themselves, which was the core goal of monetising the site. Thanks everyone for your support here! Next up, doing online surveys were another tidy earner. This quarter we earned $190. In Q1 we earned $170 from surveys, $100 in Q2, and $285 in Q3. That brings us to $645 for the year. When you get these in the form of e-gift vouchers, they’re tax free. Cha-ching! We also had $110 in rewards program redemptions for October-December. It’s really not even a blip on the radar, but we’ll take it nevertheless. In total we had $240 of rewards redemptions for the year. Lastly, it’s not really an ‘active’ income source, but Christmas rolled around, and our parents gave us cash in lieu of physical presents. Good thing they gave us money, too, because we have everything else we need – aside from early retirement! This year we received $1,000 in cash, which is greatly appreciated – thanks mums and dads! That brings our side hustles to a total of $566.74, plus $1,000 in presents. Added together with our salaries, that gives us a grand total of $44,880.92, compared to $37,765.44 last quarter. https://preview.redd.it/uqy6w4p1w0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c325286aa6e915618bf737bbacb419bb86b1b13f October-December: DividendsLet’s turn our sights to our ‘passive’ income: share dividends.We had a nice year of buying and reinvesting shares, so as always – we really want to see our numbers increase. It would be rather disheartening to see a year of progress reveal no progress at all. So how do our numbers compare to last year:
Looking at the numbers above, our dividend income has increased year-on-year by $2,562.32 or 20.2%, which is quite nice. For reference, this is the full picture for 2019, versus 2018:
Short of a market crash, things are looking great to improve once again in 2020, with over a quarter of a million dollars in shares purchased and dividend reinvested across 2019 – plus anything extra we purchase throughout 2020. https://preview.redd.it/acan7eq2w0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e07049eea455419be91352c59872fc04b9e123e October-December: ExpensesAlright, drum-roll time. Let’s look at our expenses for the final quarter of the year:Important to note: the “TOTAL” columns are for the entire year – this table now includes expenses for the last four years: 2016-2019. For October-December we had total expenses of $11,983.96. That dwarfs our 2018 expenses for the same period (which were $7,760.86) – so an increase of $4,223.1 or 54.4%. Gimme a O, U, C, H! That figure is also almost as much as our expenses for quarters 1, 2 and 3 combined. What on earth happened?!? Well, that blowout is entirely down to two items: our tax bill – which doubled on last year – as well as down-payments on a holiday we’re taking to New Zealand in Q1 2020. Our total holiday cost will come in at around $5,000 so we still have around $3,000 coming our way in Q1 next year, so that’ll be an expensive time. However, we hope our tax bill to drop a little bit in 2020 by maybe $1,500 – so that’ll help. It was another largely our bills were mostly around the same – but not all. Firstly, there were some notable savings. The biggest step we took was downgrading one of Ellie’s professional memberships, resulting in a saving of almost $400. Across the whole year this downgrade will save us about $750 each year, which is nothing to be sneezed at. In November 2018 we also had a big expense with setting up the blog, which wasn’t replicated this year. Compared to last year our grocery bill has gone up a little bit, but not as much as we expected given the severe drought. If we take out tax from our “living expenses”, across all of 2019 we only spent $18,256 compared to $17,891 in 2018. That’s an increase of 2%, which is pretty much in line with inflation. All up our goal was to cut spending for the year, which we failed at. But given what some of those increases were, ultimately we’re pretty happy with our expenses. Yeah, some things have gone up, but others have dropped. We could have saved more if the goal was to save money at any cost, but we’re pretty comfortable with life at the moment and what we spend money on. We have a holiday to look forward to, while 2021 will be a staycation most likely ahead of another international trip in 2022. And sure, our tax bill went up, but that’s because we had a higher income – so we don’t have any right to complain there. 2019 was another year of managing to dodge big expenses for items like broken appliances or home maintenance, which will eventually bite us. Until that happens though, we’ll keep saving and investing. But speaking of saving, how did we go for the quarter, as well as the whole year? https://preview.redd.it/bfkev8l4w0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=577ede8adf901322b29b28b93a4883a1d910930d How are we tracking? Q4 savings rateNow let’s throw together some numbers and see what comes out. First up we’ll look at the savings rate for the quarter:
So that’s not really a surprise, and in the grand scheme 80% is still pretty good. But forget Q4. What did all of 2019 look like? It’s a number I’ve been waiting all year to see… https://preview.redd.it/2dcay1d5w0a41.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40773ade74465500540cc0521ee432ba936b2cbf 2019 annual savings rateSo, did we reach our goal of a 90% savings rate for all of 2019?
Feeling an instant level of guilt, I ran a calculation to see what would have happened if we we didn’t pre-pay part of our upcoming holiday, and it was 89.3% – still short. That makes me feel a bit better. The next big savings rate killer was the tax. With the way we do our calculations, having some $4,800 of taxable side-hustle income for 2018-19 meant almost $1,800 in extra tax. The impact of that extra tax and holidays combined would have just about got us over the line to 90%. We tried and ultimately failed! Sorry, folks! In any case, saving almost $190,000 between income and reinvested dividends is something we’re really thrilled about. It’s all going into shares now, and will continue to do so until we hit our share income goals. Combined with the increases to our net worth in 2019, our goal of early retirement has never been closer and feels like it’s accelerating. We’ll be posting our 2020 goals next week, so stay tuned for that. Thanks for reading and good luck with your income and expense goals for the year ahead! Cheers, Alex Blog link: https://hishermoneyguide.com/quarter-4-2019-income-and-expenses/ |
If the return for T1 & T4 is £1.84 then this means you get £1.84 for every pound you staked.e.g. a £10.00 straight forecast on a dividend of £1.84 would return you £18.40 winnings!Hope that Calculating the Computer Straight Forecast. Use this page to check returns for the CSF formula as used by bookmakers. You can set the type of race and enter the Starting Prices of all runners in a race and see the calculated CSF return. Our Rule 4 bet calculator feature will help you work out exactly what your returns will be. Dead Heat Rules. A dead heat occurs when two or more horses cross the finish line at the same moment. If one of these horses was yours. You won’t win the full amount. Your winnings will be reduced depending on the number of horses who have dead-heated. Add the Timeform Odds Bet Calculator to your website! Copy & paste the code below: Whether you are new to the world of betting or somewhat of an old hand when it comes to having a flutter every now and again, you will undoubtedly be aware of the sheer range of options at bookmakers like Betfair and Paddy Power when it comes to having a bet. In fact it is the only bet calculator I know of that lets you calculate a reverse forecast. There is an option to do a single, double and treble forecast or reverse forecast too. For all bet types there is also a full description of what the bet is, how to place it and how returns are calculated (see above right). How does a Reverse Forecast bet work? The Reverse Forecast is a bet on two runners finishing 1st and 2nd in one half and the reverse in the second half of the bet. It is effectively two straight forecasts with opposing predicted results meaning the stake is double compared to a Straight Forecast. Bet Calculator Work out potential winnings for any type of bet or check winning bets have been settled correctly with our bet calculator. Enter your stake, bet type, odds (fractional or decimal), place terms (if applicable) and then hit the calculate button. How does a reverse forecast bet work? A reverse forecast bet combines two straight forecast bets into a single bet. This bet covers the two variations in finishing order for two entries finishing a race in the top two. For example, say you place a £2 reverse forecast bet that horse A and horse B will take the first two places in a race. The Reverse Bet Calculator is the best way to work with “if bets”. You can find more details below on the best way to use this calculator for your benfit. Calculate bet returns for Accumulators, Lucky 15's, Doubles, Trebles, Football, Horse Racing and more. The most comprehensive and reliable bet calculator.
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