I'm not putting my life savings in or anything dumb like that haha. Just put a good 50 bucks in and potentially see it rise gradually throughout the next year if I'm smart enough. I know that betting on wrestling is kinda stupid, but I'm still interested.
Any recommendations?
submitted by 2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted
here Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price. Check out my DD below:
Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (1/28/21) : $11.97
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested
here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller submitted by 2/9/21 Update: Additional info posted
here Funko is a good company with solid performance that is still trading at a reasonable price.
Check out my DD below:
Funko (FNKO)
Share Price (02/01/21) : $12.90
Share Price (09/16/19) : $27.86
Short Interest (1/26/21) : 14%
Next Earnings Release: March 2021
Funko Inc. is an American company that manufactures licensed pop culture collectibles, best known for its licensed vinyl figurines and bobbleheads. They have over 1,000 licenses across music, video games, film, TV, sports and many other pop culture properties. Some of their most popular licensed brands include Marvel, Disney, Star Wars, Pokemon, Fortnite, NBA, NFL, MLB, DC Comics, and a variety of anime properties.
Several points below support the belief that Funko’s revenue grew during the 2020 holiday season and could continue well into 2021:
· Increasing search traffic for Funko products
· Direct sales growth is driving increased revenue and profitability
· Parents are buying more gifts for their kids due to COVID
· People have more disposable income from staying at home and not going out
· Expansion of new products and licensees continuing through 2021
· Collectible investments like Funko POP! figures are exploding in value and popularity
· Recent analyst commentary, valuation, and financials are positive
FUNKO’S SEARCH TRAFFIC REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH IN Q4 2020 “Funko” google trends search traffic was up 20-30% in Q4 2020 (vs. Q4 2019)
Searches for “Funko” were up 2x in December vs the beginning of November 2020
After falling in December, “Funko” searches are trending back up to all-time-high levels
FUNKO’S DIRECT SALES INITIATIVES DRIVING HIGHER REVENUE & MARGIN Funko Direct Sales (B2C) grew significantly in Q3 and likely to continue into Q4
· B2C business as a percentage of sales increased to 8% in Q3 2020 from 4% during the prior year.
· Funko’s e-commerce site grew over 150% vs. the prior year in Q3 2020
· The number of SKU’s on Funko’s e-commerce site rose tenfold since June 2020
“We went from only 200 of our own products [on our website] as late as June this year, to now well over 2,000 products available on our website.” – Funko CEO, Brian Mariotti Funko’s first ever Selena Pop! sold out online in just 40 minutes.
Funko’s Q3 2020 Gross Profit % and Operating Margin % were near all-time-highs for the company
· Funko’s Q3 Gross Profit Percentage of 38.6% was its second highest ever (behind only Q1 2020)
· Funko’s Q3 Operating Profit Percentage of 10.8% was its second highest ever (behind only Q4 2018)
· As Funko continues to grow it’s B2C e-commerce sales in Q4 and beyond, it is possible that gross profit and operating profit percentages could rise as well
Retail customers were able to shift their Brick & Mortar inventory to their e-commerce channels to Funko unit sales
· Funko resellers who didn’t sell online were severely impacted by Brick & Mortar closures during COVID stay-at-home orders. As 2020 progressed, some of these retailers were able to create online stores (e.g.- Shopify, Amazon, eBay, etc.) through which they could sell their Funko inventory.
· Larger retailers that already had an omni-channel presence were able to shift their sales inventory from their Brick & Mortar stores to online fulfilment.
Funko has also created a mini-Pop! factory at its headquarters where customers can make their own custom Funko at a price of $25 each
· According to Funko, you can customize your Pop! using thousands of combinations. It’s “Think Build-A-Bear meets Funko Pop!” according to CEO Brian Mariotti.
· With a $25 price point, the margins are likely higher than the average Pop! figure that retails for between $10 to $15
PARENTS BUYING MORE GIFTS FOR THEIR KIDS DUE TO COVID Parents likely splurged on their kids out of guilt of having shelter at home because of restrictions and to keep them occupied while they had to work at home.
· “Faced with rising transmission of the virus, state restrictions on retailers and heightened political and economic uncertainty, consumers chose to spend on gifts that lifted the spirits of their families and friends and provided a sense of normalcy given the challenging year. We believe President-elect Biden’s stimulus proposal, with direct payments to families and individuals, and further aid for small businesses and tools to keep businesses open, will keep the economy growing.” NRF President Matthew Shay
· “2020 was an unprecedented year for the U.S. toy industry. The growth we’ve seen in the toy industry speaks to the fact that parents are willing to put their children’s happiness above all else. The industry’s resiliency is very much underpinned by the reality that, in times of hardship, families look to toys to help keep their children engaged, active, and delighted. Put simply, toys are a big part of the happiness equation.” Juli Lennett - VP, U.S. Toys at NPD
Toy sales were strong in 2020 as US retail sales of toys was up 16% vs 2019; driven by pandemic spending
· According to NPD, “Much of the growth in 2020 was directly correlated to the COVID-19 pandemic and the changing consumer behavior associated with widespread lockdowns and school closures, the disposable income diverted from other types of entertainment to toys, as well as the onset of federal stimulus checks.”
Consumer spending on toys increased measurably due to lockdowns; with strong performance continuing through the holidays
· Per NPD, “While toy sales through mid-March 2020 were flat vs. 2019, widespread lockdown measures led to an abrupt increase in sales. This was further amplified by the distribution of stimulus checks beginning in April, resulting in the strongest month of growth for the year in May (+38%). Toy industry growth peaked again in October with an increase of 33% when the holiday season kicked off with Amazon Prime Day along with other retailer deals the same week.”
Key retail sources reporting significant sales growth during Q4 2020 suggest Funko sales performance was strong
· Target Q4 sales were fantastic showing signs of retail strength with a consumer that overlaps well with the Funko
> Overall comparable sales were up 17.2%
> Comparable digital sales were up over 100%
> Store-originated comparable sales were up 4.2%
> Store traffic was up 4.3%
> Average ticket size was up 12.3%
· GameStop Q4 sales were solid; showing additional potential for Funko sales
> Same store sales were up 4.8% in Q4 2020
> Online sales increased 309% in Q4 2020
· According to the NRF, 2020 Holiday Retail Sales were up 8.3% compared to the prior year despite the pandemic
> A surge in online shopping drove the increase (rising 32% vs. 2019)
> The increase of 8.3% was over double the average increase of 3.5% that the industry had seen over the last five years.
MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND AT HOME BY NOT GOING OUT The National Retail Federation (NRF) says that strong retail performance has been driven by consumers with stimulus checks and extra savings from not going out or traveling
· “There was a massive boost to consumer wallets this season. Consumers were able to splurge on holiday gifts because of increased money in their bank accounts from the stimulus payments they received earlier in the year and the money they saved by not traveling, dining out, or attending entertainment events” – NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Spending on “experiences” fell significantly in 2020
· The US Travel Association forecasts that spending on travel fell $500 billion in 2020 from $1.1 trillion in 2019
> The industry has lost about 40% of its direct travel jobs (about 3.5 million jobs) in 2020; driven by a reduction in business travel
> Foreign visitors to the US fell about 75% in 2020; driving a $119 billion reduction in travel spending
· Concert spending is down dramatically
> Live Nation reported a 98% decline in concert revenue in Q2 2020 and a 95% decline in concert revenue in Q3 2020
> About 5.2 million tickets were refunded in Q3 2020 and 23.3 million tickets had been refunded so far in 2020 (as of the end of Q3)
· Movie theater attendance is down substantially
> AMC theaters saw a 97% decline in attendance and a 91% decline in revenue in Q3 2020
> Cinemark saw a 96% decline in revenue
> Marcus Corporation (which also owns hotels and restaurants) saw a 84% decline in revenue
> Studio Movie Grill filed for bankruptcy
· Other anecdotal information points to more stay-at-home activity decreasing recreational spending
> Chuck E Cheese’s declared bankruptcy
> Dave & Busters is considering bankruptcy and plans layoffs of +1,000
> CiCi’s Pizza declares bankruptcy
> Starbucks saw fewer customers, reduced store hours, increased store closures, and a 5% decline in revenues in Q4 2020. This has led them to plan a shift to more “to-go” formats
> Many Las Vegas Hotels and Casinos have decided to close “part-time” during the week due to lower attendance and travel.
These include Encore, Rio, Linq, Planet Hollywood, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, and Mirage
The majority of food buffets at the major hotels and casinos have been shuttered for the time being
Stimulus checks and other government programs to support consumer spending provide tailwinds for retail activity
· The US government authorized more than $10,000 per person in stimulus spending in 2020 over the course of five relief bills totaling $3.5 trillion
· More stimulus spending is expected; including a potential $1.9 trillion package that could include an additional $1,400 in stimulus checks
MORE SKUS / LICENSES ARE GROWING AND EXPECTED TO CONINUE STRONG Active properties continue to rise and are expected to grow well into the future
· The number of active properties in Q3 2020 grew 15% over 2019
· Active properties grew from 644 in Q2 to 715 in Q3 2020
· The potential universe for Funko Pops! is limitless as new films, tv shows, musicians, anime characters, sports stars, and other media properties are created every year.
Some of the hot properties for this year and beyond
· Star Wars: Baby Yoda, Mandalorian, Rey, Valentine’s Day, etc.
· Marvel: WandaVision, Deadpool, Lucha Libre, Spiderman, Venom
· Anime: Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, Bakugan, My Hero Academia
· Films: Harry Potter, The Goonies, The Mummy, Fast & Furious
· TV: The Office, Umbrella Academy, The Queen’s Gambit, The Simpsons
· Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, WWE
· Others: Disney, Pokemon, etc.
Retail exclusives can grow the potential universe of licenses and increase retailer buy-in
· For example: A retailer like GameStop could lobby Funko to make a GameStop exclusive of the WallStreetBets Kid like this person suggested
here. (The exclusive Pop! would be made into a limited edition and sold only to GameStop to sell at their stores)
COLLECTIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE GROWING IN VALUE & POPULARITY · Funko: The average Pops! Figure has a retail price from between $10 and $15 which allows most people an affordable entry point into collecting. Over time some Pops! Figures increase substantially in price; from $50 to $100 to even several thousand dollars. While some collectors buy Pops! as primarily an investment, many more buy them as a way to show their fandom. Whether they are avid Star Wars, Harry Potter, Pokemon, Sports, or Anime fans; collectors build large collections and show them off to friends.
· Sports Cards: To those paying attention, sports cards have been on a massive run with some cards worth more than your parent’s house and your sister’s car. Since the pandemic started, the demand for sports collectibles from basketball to football to soccer (and many others) has skyrocketed. Countless videos of box-breaks and pack openings have become the norm on social media. Some of these boxes are being purchased for tens of thousands with “hits” ranging from several hundred to hundreds of thousands.
· Collector’s Universe: This company that grades sports cards and other collectibles has tripled in value since June 2020. The number of sports collectors grading cards has exploded as demand rises. The popularity of grading sports cards is expected to maintain as prices continue to rise and the hobby becomes more mainstream.
ANALYST COMMENTARY AND FINANCIALS ARE A POSTIVE FOR THE STOCK Piper Sandler: Upgraded Funko from “Neutral” to “Overweight” (raising their price target from $6 to $12).
· Analyst Erin Murphy sees evidence of “subsequent revenue pillars” with their recent launch of Snapsies at 800 Target stores; along with an expansion into board games and its digital efforts, which include a newly launched website in six European countries.
Valuation Comparison: Market Cap / Revenue (TTM)
· Funko: MC - $604 million / Rev - $640 million (0.9x sales)
· Mattel: MC - $6.27 billion / Rev - $4.43 billion (1.4x sales)
· Hasbro: MC - $13.13 billion / Rev - $5.17 billion (2.5x sales)
Key Financial Trends For Funko
· Q3 2020 EPS (Adjusted) = $0.31
> Third highest ever (only Q4 2018 & Q3 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue = $191 million
> Fourth highest ever (only Q4 2018, Q3 2019, and Q4 2019 were higher)
· Q3 2020 Revenue increase vs prior quarter of 94%
> Q1 and Q2 2020 saw significant declines due to COVID
> Q3 2020 only down 14% vs Q3 2019 despite Q2 2020 being down 49%
> Q3 2020 strength driven by Funko adapting quickly to online in the US market. (Q4 2020 revenue growth could be aided substantially by Funko’s development of their e-commerce shop in Europe.)
· Q3 2020 SG&A was reduced 20% vs. the prior year as Funko rationalizes costs and adjusts to focus more on D2C e-commerce
TL;DR After a tough summer, Funko sales have rocketed back in Q3 to near where they were pre-pandemic; setting up a potentially historic earnings for Q4 2020. Google search activity suggests that Funko is as popular as ever and is set up well for a strong year in 2021. People are spending less on “going out;” instead buying things to use at home and presents for their kids. As time passes, Funko’s status as a popular collectible only continues to gain momentum.
Their direct sales initiative allows Funko to capture additional margin by sidestepping traditional brick and mortar retail to reach their customers. Investments in collectible products like Pops! and sports cards continue to increase in popularity and price. And the company continues to release even more products beyond Pops!; including games and apparel. While some Wall Street Analysts have already begun to take notice, a strong Q4 earnings announcement can drive even more attention to the stock.
Positions: Long Shares & Calls
Disclosure: I am long FNKO. This is not investment advice. I reserve the right to buy or sell FNKO without updating this thread. Do your own research and share (or not share) with the community in this thread. Thank you to the others on Reddit that shared this idea earlier.
Feedback: If you have any additional information, ideas, or critiques please make sure to comment. It is great to get the perspective of others when making an investment. Also that information can be incorporated into future posts and updates.
Previous DD: Herman Miller submitted by So, apparently, WhatCulture made a list about "Top 10 most boring wrestlers in 2020"
And apparently, some IWC members had problem with this.
I found out about this in
this video (by a guy that has not that many subscribers and is pretty hilarious, so I wanted to shout out) so sorry that I am late a week or two.
In this video I saw some responses which were very negative, and I googled up and apparently..yup, this was a big deal for some people in the IWC
One comment caught my eye tho.
"We leave whatculture in 2020"
A comment which was obviously a meme comment to voice the displeasure of the list.
But that's not my point.
The point is...
People hated WhatCulture's list
If they make 3 more lists like this...They'd lose fans.
If they lose fans. They'd lose clicks.
If they lose clicks. They lose money.
If they lose money....
...yeah.
So, you can bet your ass that WhatCulture will try their best to make a list in the future that won't give them the same response.
And....this is how echo chambers are created.
A random writer might say "Hmm..honestly? Kenny Omega is kinda boring, let's put him on #10"
But the same writer will say "oh shit..umm..people like him...better replace him with..umm..Miz? yeah, Miz, who cares about him"
Aaaand..the list is no longer legit! It's currated and edited so it can make people happy!
Next time they might make a list saying "The top 10 wrestlers of 2020!"
And the writer might say "Yeah, listen Kenny Omega had a great december, but for the rest of the year he was in tag teams, and there were a lot of amazing solo wrestlers, so let's not put him in this list"
...but that won't give them money.
And not only that...IT WOULD GIVE THEM
NEGATIVE exposure.
So the writer, obviously cares about his job and his company and he'll ha ve to put Kenny Omega on a list.
But...the writer is smart.
If he puts him in the 8th, 9th or 10th spot...people would overreact.
So...he has to put him on a high spot...just so people will click and give the company props/clicks/money
Let's say he'll put him at #3.
And voila.
The list exists.
And now we go to the other part of my story.
Somewhere, some person in the world starts watching wrestling.
He is watching Kenny Omega for few months and he is not too impressed (btw, I am using Omega cause this place would have no problem with it, and he's the pefect for this example)
So...he'll google around and he'll see that WhatCulture put him as #3 on the list of best wrestlers (mind you, the same list that was not legit, and was put by a writer who doesn't think he is #3, but he wants money)
So...this random viewer will say "Heh..I might be stupid for not liking him, it seems the majority loves him!'
So..this same person, will google around and find reddit.
And he'll see a random thread.
And he'll see few comments praising Kenny Omega.
And he'll want to reply "idk, I don't like him"
But...he remembered the article. He sees the reddit comments. No one wants to be hated and downvoted cause...chemicals in our brain and social aceptance. Our brains are weird like that.
So..he'll say "yeah, Omega is great, I started watching wrestling cause of him"
BOOM. 1000 upvotes and gold.
And...this random person is doing the same thing the writer did above.
This is how echo chambers are created.
This goes for many wrestlers.
You go to a RAW show. "Real" life, not internet.
You want to cheer for Roman.
But people boo him. You don't want to go against the majority. So you boo him too. But you like him.
The person next to you? He likes him too. But he wants to boo cause..well..the internet told him it's cool.
Why did the internet told him it's cool? Cause the vocal minority told the website "if you don't put Roman on the top 10 uncool wrestlers we won't visit your site"
And it's a vicious cycle.
Now, don't get me wrong. 95% of opinions are fair. People like what's good and dislike what's bad.
But in 5% of the opinions in the IWC, everything seems to be.."manufactured" for likes and dislikes.
Same goes for "The Experience" podcast. You listen to it so you can hear Jim shit on something. Maybe he likes something? Well, people expect from him to hate a certain segment and he wants the money so he'll shit on it! (again, I am not saying this is true for anyone, I am just using examples!)
And this really annoys me, cause the more you push a certain idea...the more extreme it becomes.
Remember how in 15 years we went from:
WWE has some great guys, the mid-card/tag/whatever is solid but I hate Cena and Evolution
to
Cena ruins this company, I love the legends, but Cena is terrible
to:
Roman is overpushed, but the roster is stacked, the future will be amazing
to:
WWE sucks. Watch other companies instead.
And now you're at a point where the majority of the IWC is an echo chamber where you won't find a person who says the opposite of the majority.
Same goes for this place, don't get me wrong. No offense, but in thise place sometimes people hate to see AEW praise or WWE hate.
The IWC became a machine which feeds on certain opinions where everyone who dares to go against it is doomed.
You think WhatCulture will have the same ammount of viewers if they suddenly said "Yeah, thie last 5 episodes of AEW were trash, RAW was on a streak, we loved it! ?
No. Which is why they do what they do (and again, the examples are above are just examples not my opinion)
So yeah, like I said 95% of the time people have the real opinion. But when it comes to the top..it feels that everything is manufactured.
People hating on Charlotte is the best example for this when she IMHO has been the best woman wrestler for the last few years. But people would HATE if she wins the rumble instead of someone with 0 reason to do so like..Kacy Catanzaro or god knows what.
And WWE has to book around it too!
"Umm..we want Roman to win the Rumble..but people will hate..soo..let's have __ win the Rumble and ROman get a title shot at the next PPV?"
I am so glad that AEW exists at the moment, cause they'll have to do one of two things
A) Book the way smarks want you to
B) Book the way it should be done
If they go the A route...it will be a literal example that if a comapny listens to the vocal miniroty they are going to die a terrible death, and if they go the B route, they will do A LOT of things that WWE is doing.
Sorry for the long text, I sometimes like writing long stuff like this to unwind haha
submitted by Hey all, independent wrestling is a huge part of my wrestling fandom. I remember seeing Combat Zone Wrestling on a local channel back in 2001 or so and was immediately hooked. I'd watch that and NWA Wildside weekly until they'd disappear from the channel and eventually, it'd become a religious channel. I'd also get glimpses of Ring of Honor and PWF, which was Steve Corino's fed based out of PA
Since then, my love and interest in the indies has continued to grow and now, it's easier than ever to get into the indie scene. As well as, being able to look at the history of the scene. With that said, I wanted to talk about some of the more important indies over the past 20 years. As the scene really evolved and became more and more noteworthy with the rise of promotions like ROH and CZW, as well as the internet offering more discussion and a way to get their products out there more with sites like Smartmark or ROH's site where people could buy DVDs and see what the hype was about.
So I'll be covering promotions, giving a brief history of them, and sharing where you can watch their content. As most of these are available through streaming services. I'm not a massive expert on them mind you, but definitely will do my best to talk about them. Most of them you may know, some you might not.
Why do I think you should check out indie wrestling? Personally, for the past 20 years it has been a breeding ground of talent. Guys like Punk, Joe, Bryan, Aries, Cole, Kendrick, and countless others cut their teeth on the indies. Not to mention the countless others who never made it to the WWE for one reason or the other. It has been a place of innovation, it was and still is an alternative that offer something different than the WWE and AEW to a degree.
People see talent like Max Caster, Bear Country, KTB, and others on Dark and they rave about them. Well they came from places like Beyond and Game Changer, where they were grinding and working on getting to that next level. So why not see where they come from? But that is just my opinion.
I understand that indie wrestling isn't for everyone. However, I think to a degree that people dismiss it based on clips that highlight the more wacky or extreme side of it. The Marko and Effy dildo spot or death matches. Which there is an audience for mind you. But furthermore, the indie scene is massive and dismissing it based on a few clips is like dismissing a musical genre based on a few songs. When there is so much more it offers. Enough rambling, let's get to it.
- Ring of Honor - One of, if not the best indie feds of the 2000s. A strong array of talent that emphasised in ring ability above anything else. CM Punk, Bryan Danielson, Samoa Joe, Alex Shelley, Jamie Noble, Austin Aries, Seth Rollins, and so many more top notch talents would work there. They'd bring in some top notch international talent like Dragon Gate guys and Kenta Kobashi. Currently, they are owned by Sinclair Broadcast Company and aren't so much an indie fed anymore. They are a far cry from what they once were, especially with the departure of the Elite. But they still have some strong talent and people raved about the pure tournament they recently did.
Where to watch?
FITE.TV offers their weekly show for free, as well their PPVs, most recently Final Battle I believe. They also are on Stadium, which is on Pluto TV for free.
Your best value is Honor Club. It's far from perfect, as it doesn't have their entire back catalog and is missing some key shows, as well as their TV show from the HDnet days. But it still has a lot of content and you can at least get a decent glimpse at their heyday from 2005 til about 2010 or so.
- Combat Zone Wrestling- Founded in 1999 and set to be an even more extreme version of ECW, they'd eventually find their footing by 2001 or so. With strong talents like Ruckus, Trent Acid, Sanjay Dutt, Nick Mondo, Ric Blade, the H8 Clubs, and others they'd garner a strong following in the Philly area. Notable names like Moxley, Brodie Lee, Cole, and others would have stints there. They specialized in more ultra violent stuff, with yearly death match tournaments. But definitely had a well rounded product and 2004-2006 is a strong time period for them. Currently, they are on a hiatus, with rumors of a comeback in the future.
Where to watch?
CZW Studios, if it's still active. As they had pretty much their entire catalog. But for a better value, Highspots has a good chunk of their catalog, especially from 2004-2006. With them, you also get access to tons of other content, so it's a better option. IWTV has some of their stuff as well, including their last show they ran. But they lack bits of it here and there.
- IWA Mid South- Founded in 96 after Ian Rotten departed ECW. They'd become a juggernaut of an indie fed by the early 2000s. Giving opportunities to CM Punk and Chris Hero, among others. Lots of top talent would pass through there. Joe, Styles, Punk, Rollins, Moxley, and more. Not as strong as ROH, but definitely had a strong stretch. Ted Petty Invitational 2004 is regarded as one of the best indie tournaments of all time. Also notable for hosting the somewhat iconic Joe/Necro Butcher match. Currently they still run, but they are a far cry from what they once were, even before covid.
Where to watch?
Highspots is your best bet. Much like CZW, they have more of their heyday available. However, IWTV has their current stuff, which might be worth checking out if you already have the service. But for their prime, I'd stick with Highspots.
- CHIKARA- The brainchild of Mike Quackenbush, started out as a place for his students to cut their teeth and get experience. A mix of light hearted comedy and lucha influence. They'd expand and become a strong force on the indies, they'd peak by 2010 or and would slowly decline. Especially after they shut down for a bit and ran an angle in the build up to their return. Their King of Trios shows were incredible. They'd book and have a hand in creating some top talent like Eddie Kingston, Chris Hero, Cesaro, Colt Cabana, and others. Also, some of their students turned out really good. Currently, they shut down due to allegations during the speaking out movement and a return is probably not gonna happen
Where to watch?
If it still exists, CHIKARAtopia, they had their entire catalog and other stuff as well. IWTV also has pretty much their entire catalog and their offshoot shows from the Wrestling is catalog. A better deal for sure.
- Pro Wrestling Guerrilla- Based out of California, they'd become arguably the premier indie fed, once ROH would be bought out. Strong influx of So-Cal talent and they'd become a super indie. Tons of names crossed through their. Owens, Zayn, Cole, Gargano, Ciampa, The Bucks, Cesaro, and tons more. Currently, on a hiatus, with rumors that they might not come back. As Super Dragon apparently has no need to run anymore and Excalibur has his AEW gig.
Where to watch?
Well you can still buy DVDS from them. Highspots is the best bet, although they are on a year delay. But as of now, they are caught up. Doesn't have all of PWG, as some of their early stuff is missing. But they have close to all of it on their service .
That wraps up the notable feds of the 2000s era. There are others that had some influence like Jersey All Pro, IWA East Coast, Full Impact Pro, and others. But those 5 were, to me at least, the pillars of indie wrestling. Now we move onto the top feds of today.
- Game Changer Wrestling- Arguably the top indie fed today. A hybrid of styles, mixing comedy, hard-core, technical wrestling, and more. Their shows usually deliver with some of the top indie names today. Tony Deppen, Blake Christian, Nick Gage, Rickey Shane Page, Chris Dickinson, and more. They'd grow out of being a small promotion to being the indie fed over the past few years. They have shows upcoming and I'd recommend them.
Where to watch?
They steam mostly through FITE. They do have some shows on IWTV and they have a deal to stream some shows live through them. They also streamed their latest show , Slime Season free on YouTube.
- ICW No Holds Barred- Originally just a typical indie fed based out of New York. They'd rebrand this year with a different approach. No Holds Barred, replacing the ropes with chains and opting for more of a death match fed. They also have their Pitfighter shows, which are fights held in a UFC style cage. Not for everyone, but a cool vibe to their shows. Notable talent; John Wayne Murdoch, Akira, Reed Bentley, Alex Ocean, Neil Diamond Cutter, and Casanova Valentine . Definitely not for everyone, but if you like death matches, I'd check em out.
Where to watch?
IWTV, they have a few of their shows before they rebranded and they stream all their current shows live.
- Black Label Pro - I'm not super familiar with them. But what I've seen, they are a solid fed. Kylie Ray, Alex Shelley, The Rascalz, Tom Lawlor, and others usually populate their cards. Definitely worth checking out.
Where to watch?
IWTV is the place. They stream some shows live, as well as having a decent backlog of content.
- No Peace Underground - A unique approach to wrestling, running no ring shows out of the Sound bar in Florida. Opting for death matches for the most part, but they do have some regular matches and it's interesting to see how talent works their matches in a no ring environment.
Where to watch?
Once again, IWTV. They have a few shows up and streamed their most recent shows. Some of their stuff is so on YouTube.
And that's just a few of many. Beyond, New South, H20, and more. Most of which stream through IWTV. Ultimately, I'd recommend IWTV the most. They have deals with a large portion of indie feds past and present. As well as stuff from all over the world. Such as Sendai Girls, Big Japan, lucha feds, and others. Live shows is a huge selling point, including one tonight from H20.
Highspots is decent as well, but mostly for PWG and older stuff, they have some other indies. So it's not bad, but I think it lacks compared to IWTV.
Hope this was helpful and maybe makes you consider checking out some indie wrestling in the future.
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